Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,125$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(256 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,097.1}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,097.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $86$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(104.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $398$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,623$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,196.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,196.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,040$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,197.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,197.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,612$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,034$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,714.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,714.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $217$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(30.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218.0}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(218.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,785$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,673$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(435 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,925.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,925.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(15.9 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(281.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,918$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,281$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,332.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,332.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $514$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(64.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{502.2}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(502.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,860$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(376 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,420$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,282.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(52,282.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,415$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(611 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,229.0}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,229.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,025$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $207,977$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(217,423.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,689$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,077.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(31,077.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $176,318$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $215,858$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,882.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(211,882.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,958$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,330.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,330.8\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $89,624$ on 2020-05-07
